Author of 6 books on investing, trading, mathematics and psychology in the global financial markets, including the bestsellers The Small Trader’s Encyclopedia, The Path to Financial Freedom, How to Buy Low and Sell High and Good Assets: The Investor’s Handbook.

He made his first transactions in the financial markets, including the management of clients’ assets, in 1995.

Erik Nayman is founder and director of Ukrainian investment company called HUG’S, which has over $200 million assets under management.

One of the leading economic experts in Ukraine.

I. Humanity is aggressively increasing its consumption and is actually eating up the planet’s resources faster than they can be renewed. This generates:
a. The need to limit people’s consumption – coronavirus, high inflation, other restrictions, virtual worlds will help
b. Virtual worlds will help reduce the pain of limiting consumption in a mass economy and are a great solution to create limitless virtual consumption with reduced energy consumption for transportation
c. Robotization and algorithmization will help improve the efficiency of the use of natural resources, including through the localization of production
d. Robotization requires a lot of clean energy
e. Batteries will help store energy to optimize its consumption

II. The Jamaica Accords of petrodollars has become obsolete and is in crisis. The crisis began in 2013 after China refused to increase the US public debt. As a result, there will be either the end of globalization with the transition to a new world reserve currency or the US-China bipolar world.
Until a new system of international relations and a monetary system emerges, world geopolitics will be in a fever.

III. The demographic transition (completion of population growth in developed countries) remains a long-term deterrent to the growth of interest rates.

IV. The new economy and technological revolution require renewable energy on a massive scale.

1. The growing risk of an economic crisis in the US and the EU with rising inflation due to disruption of logistics, high business costs, and a shortage of important products. Therefore, we monitor forecasts for the profits of American businesses, as well as data on the labor market (affect consumer activity).
2. If an economic crisis starts, there will be a debt crisis and bankruptcy of weak players. This is again a threat to Southern Europe and to heavily indebted companies. Assets in the EU are hit hard by the war in Ukraine, energy dependence on the Russian Federation and high commodity prices. Add problems may accelerate the economic crisis in China. Therefore, we give priority to the United States.
3. Monetary tightening by the Fed will bring the discount rate to 2-2.5% by the end of the year. The market expects an acceleration in the pace of monetary tightening.
4. There is a growing risk of a new Arab Spring due to food shortages, which will also cause an aggravation in the Middle East. This will support high oil and agricultural prices.
5. A Chinese attack on Taiwan is unlikely. But if this happens, the consequences for the global economy and financial markets will be horrendous.
6. There has not yet been a capitulation of players who bought US shares on credit.
7. If Xi Jinping is removed, it will be interesting to buy shares in China and especially BABA can benefit from this.
8. The economy of the Russian Federation is in a state of free fall and it is not known where the bottom will be.
9. If Putin is removed from power, commodity prices will fall sharply and stocks (primarily Growth) and bonds will rise in price. But if a military junta comes to power in the Russian Federation, which will be interested in waging a war in Ukraine to a victorious end, chaos in the world will intensify. The market reacts more to sanctions against the Russian Federation, and not to the war. The war of the Russian Federation in Ukraine does not yet have an end date. A protracted war is the worst-case scenario for the global economy and markets.

VI. There is an uncertain risk of armed conflict between the US and China.

The US economy remains strong, but with high rising inflation and signs of slowdown. Monetary tightening is getting more and more aggressive.
The risks of a recession are already growing in 2022, although most investment banks are still talking about 2023.